Who leads the global art market?

In the first half of 1999, US auctioneers presided over 64% of art market turnover. Three years later, in 2002, after some excellent London sales in July — including Sotheby’s GBP 45 million for The Massacre of the Innocents on the 10th — the UK and US were running neck and neck. At the time, this extraordinary state of affairs was put down to a few exceptional sales in Britain and a weak economic climate in America. But the exception now seems to be becoming a rule. Now there are not one, but two, leaders in the art world. In the first half of 2003 New York and London shared the honours, both with market shares close to 36%. In July, London actually beat New York on turnover, this time without any help from exceptional one-off sales. What is going on?

Art market overview weights countriesAuction sales turnover January 1st 2003 – June 30th 2003

US / UK : market shareHalf year sales turnover

What is going on?

First the US market has been hit by a severe recession, most apparent in the sharp slump in volume sales.
Less than 400 catalogued sales were held on US soil in the first half of 2003, compared to over 2,400 in the first half of 2000. This 84% slump in three years has brought with it a collapse in turnover, to just USD450 million in the first half of 2003, down 46% on 2000. The supply of works coming onto the US market has dropped sharply and demand seems utterly flaccid. Those buyers that do make it to the auction floor seem to be behaving cautiously, with no dramatic bids at prestige sales. In May 2003 the New York impressionist sales turned over USD100 million less than the previous year. And the proportion of lots bought in continued to rise to an average of 26.6% compared to 22.5% in the first half of 2000.

While the US can fairly be said to be in crisis, London is holding up well.
Despite a strengthening pound, more and more prestige sales are being held in the UK. London’s most successful sale was the evening session at Sotheby’s Impressionist and Modern Art auction on 23 June, which took GBP 33 million (EUR47 million). In another sign of the oddness of the period, more sellers became millionaires at auction in London than in the US. Between January and July 2003, 34 lots went for more than a million pounds in London, three times more than on the other side of the Atlantic. This time London’s success has not been built on one exceptional lot, but a series of well co-ordinated sales.

One more point, since the opening of its market France is once again hosting major sales, and has gradually carved out over three extra points of market share. Now, more than ever, Europe seems to be a hard and solid core to the market.